Africa's mobile internet market is rapidly expanding, fueled by rapid digital growth, a young and connected population, and substantial investments in telecommunications infrastructure.

Sub-Saharan Africa's monthly mobile data traffic per connection is projected to nearly quadruple by 2030, increasing by almost six gigabytes (GB), according to the GSMA. This growth will be driven by the expansion of high-speed mobile network coverage and rising demand for data-intensive content, such as gaming and video streaming.

The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) will see particularly strong growth, with monthly mobile data traffic expected to increase sixfold. Countries like Angola, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea could see a tenfold increase. However, mobile data consumption in the region is projected to remain below the Sub-Saharan African average of eight GB due to lower 4G and 5G penetration rates.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is expected to have the highest mobile data traffic in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, reaching 10.1 GB.

The GSMA also indicates that the growth of mobile data traffic in Sub-Saharan Africa will be fueled by greater smartphone adoption. It estimates smartphone adoption rate will rise from 51% in 2023 to 81% in 2030. ECOWAS is expected to be the most dynamic region due to its swift implementation of necessary actions to develop the telecom sector. Its smartphone adoption rate, which stood at 54% in 2023, is projected to reach 83% by 2030.

By then, the five largest smartphone markets in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to be Nigeria (230 million connections), South Africa (140 million), Ethiopia (97 million), Tanzania (92 million), and Kenya (72 million).

The number of mobile phone service consumers will also be highest in the ECOWAS region.

“By 2030, the economic contribution of mobile telecommunications in Sub-Saharan Africa will reach $170 billion. This growth will primarily stem from the continued expansion of the mobile ecosystem and its spillover effects on other sectors, as they increasingly benefit from the productivity and efficiency gains driven by mobile service adoption,” the GSMA stated. In 2023, the mobile industry contributed $140 billion to Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy.

However, for all of GSMA’s projections to materialize, Sub-Saharan African governments must take the necessary measures to encourage telecom operators to invest in networks. Otherwise, mobile network investment is expected to decline after 2027, despite relatively increasing revenues.

Special attention must also be given to smartphone affordability to promote its adoption and facilitate internet access for populations. GSMA recommends eliminating sector-specific excise duties on mobile telecommunications services, including customs duties on mobile phones, reducing VAT rates, and scrapping fixed consumer taxes (such as activation or numbering taxes) that make these services less affordable.

Muriel Edjo